This report augurs very well for the holidays.
People told consumer surveys they were miserable, but they were willing to borrow money to pursue a bargain.
The Fed is now explicitly conducting monetary policy with the aim of supporting stock prices.
Claims have now been essentially static for three months, so even if the latest declines turn out to be unsustainable, the data will still show that the trend is no longer rising rapidly, and may not be rising at all, ... It looks like the worst of the worst is now over in the labor market.
Looks to us like tax rebate money is being spent, ... Retailers should have a good autumn.
Rising jobless claims were [one] early sign the economy was slowing, and we think they may now represent an early sign that it will soon pick up speed again.
These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending.
The revisions are not as big as we feared, ... The new April number shows sales at their lowest level since November, but the previous four months were exceptionally strong, in part due to favorable weather. Given the strong trend in mortgage applications, these data likely do not signal real housing weakness.
We are not forecasting a recession, but there is some truth to the notion that negative news can be a self-fulfilling prophesy. If companies expect demand to slacken, they scale back production. And if consumers expect doom and gloom, they scale back spending. That's just the way it works.