We're certainly on solid footing on an economic front.
If there is anything more than 250,000 jobs then everything reverses and all bets about a pause at 3.25 percent are off.
The bond market is still behind the inflation curve. The inflation story continues to chip away at our economy and it doesn't seem to be getting any weaker.
Right now, we have this positive confluence of earnings and economic news that has been propelling the market.
The world assumes the Fed will raise the rates by a quarter percentage point, that's a non-event. It's what the statement lays out about the pace of future rate hikes that will be important, because that's what people are thinking about. I think the inflation reports will also be pivotal next week.
This lends some comfort to the situation. In spite of slight economic weakness, the Fed sees no need to change its strategy. It's also not going to shut down the economy too quickly.
We're no longer in a buy-and-hold environment. You have to be much more active in sector allocation. That's where the future of this business is going.
I would infer from the statement that the Fed is somewhat more sanguine on the economic recovery. Perhaps they believe that $55 oil prices are, at least for the time being, something of the past and that jobs are just improving at a moderate pace.
With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
Traders found some weakness in the factory orders in the ISM report after digging around.
I don't see any last-day-of-the-year rebound. I think it will be more of the same tomorrow.
Any bad news can throw us, and the jobs report was perceived as bad news, seen as a sign that the recovery is fragile, but that's not necessarily true. In the last two recessions, a pickup in employment only happened a year after the recession had ended. So just because unemployment is higher doesn't mean we're not on track for a recovery.
The employment report is one of the key indicators for figuring out if the consumer can hold on. We're trying to transition this economy away from the consumer, but this potential war is getting in the way. We have to keep consumer spending going until corporate executives are able to make decisions regarding corporate spending.
Accounting concerns continue to dominate the market. We're going to be seeing this 'Prove it to me' investing for a while.
People are taking some comfort in results and a feeling that the economy is getting better, but there's still some caution. We need to see more evidence of a sustainable recovery. We need companies to start seeing profits more through top-line growth than just cost-cutting measures.
We have some very ugly numbers. You can argue that the ISM is still backward looking, and maybe even the jobless claims, but eventually we're going to need some evidence that the economy is improving. We had a lot of enthusiasm coming from earnings, but the news today is a little bit of a slap in the face that we're not out of the woods yet.